Horn of Africa Complex Emergency Fact Sheet #1

Novemmber 28, 2017

Highlights

• Food security in Somalia deteriorated between August and October due to ongoing conflict and drought conditions
• USAID partners in Kenya remain prepared to respond to civil unrest following the country’s repeat election in October
• Nearly 40 percent of the approximately 578,000 IDPs in Ethiopia’s Oromiya Region lack adequate shelter

Key Developments

Approximately 3.3 million people in Somalia are experiencing Crisis—IPC 3—or worse levels of acute food insecurity, the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported in November.4 FEWS NET and the USAID-supported Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) caution that parts of Somalia will remain at risk of Famine—IPC 5—through at least May 2018. Households across Somalia have reduced access to food and income following three consecutive poor rainy seasons, which resulted in below-average agricultural production and large-scale livestock losses, in addition to ongoing conflict.

The August and October presidential elections in Kenya resulted in civil unrest that led to nearly 55 deaths and at least 150 injuries, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR). Relief organizations continue to monitor for additional civil unrest. USAID partners had pre-positioned emergency relief commodities—including food, shelter items, and other supplies—to assist people affected by election-related unrest, as needed.

In FY 2017, the U.S. Government (USG) provided more than $1 billion in multi-sector humanitarian assistance for the the Horn of Africa regional response, including approximately $235 million from USAID/OFDA, more than $650 million from USAID/FFP, and more than $174 million from State/PRM.

SOMALIA

On October 14, a truck containing explosives detonated near a popular hotel in Somalia’s capital city of Mogadishu, resulting in at least 358 deaths and more than 220 injuries, according to the UN. In response, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires, a.i., Martin Dale declared a disaster, and USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 to a USG partner to deliver emergency medical supplies and deploy medical teams to Mogadishu hospitals to treat injured persons and provide psychosocial support to survivors and families of persons affected.

More than 130 violent incidents—including abductions and assaults—targeting humanitarian organizations in Somalia occurred between January and October, the UN reports. The majority of the incidents were in central and southern Somalia, where insecurity restricts humanitarian access and operations. The total number of incidents to date in 2017 represents a more than 13 percent increase compared to the totals reported in 2015 and 2016.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) plans to withdraw 1,000 peacekeepers by December 2017 and all 21,000 AMISOM troops by 2020, international media report. AMISOM plans for a gradual withdrawal and will deploy additional non-military personnel to train and advise Somali police to enforce law and order throughout the country. International media reports that Somalia’s international partners are critical of the withdrawal plan given ongoing insecurity and al-Shabaab attacks, along with insufficient capacity in the Somali security forces.

In parts of southern and central Somalia, onset of the October-to-December deyr rainy season was delayed by nearly one month, resulting in countrywide rainfall totaling less than 50 percent of the average monthly amount during the first month of the rainy season. Rain has since increased substantially at the beginning of November, according to FEWS NET. However, most parts of the country remain atypically dry for a fourth consecutive rainy season, resulting in very poor agricultural conditions and below-average pasture for livestock. In combination with large-scale livestock losses over multiple consecutive rainy seasons and poor body conditions of remaining livestock in most areas, dry conditions will likely reduce household access to food and income, FEWS NET reports.

Climate forecasts indicate that the April-to-June 2018 gu rainy season will likely produce below-average rainfall, representing the fifth consecutive poor rainy season in Somalia, FEWS NET and FSNAU report. Current food security needs are nearly double the five-year average, with an estimated 2.4 million people experiencing Crisis-level acute food insecurity and approximately 860,000 people experiencing Emergency—IPC 4—levels, FEWS NET reports. According to FEWS NET and FSNAU, parts of Somalia—particularly the Bay/Bakool Agropastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones—will remain at risk of Famine through at least May 2018, even if humanitarian assistance continues at current levels. In the protracted absence of humanitarian assistance, famine in these areas is likely. In FY 2017, USAID/FFP provided $260.7 million in emergency food and nutrition assistance, including market-based interventions and cash transfers for food to people experiencing severe food insecurity in Somalia. In addition, USAID/OFDA provided nearly $23.1 million in FY 2017 to humanitarian partners implementing agriculture and food security activities in Somalia.

Reduced access to food, outbreak of disease, and conflict-driven displacement have contributed to a countrywide global acute malnutrition (GAM) level of 17.4 percent, exceeding the UN World Health Organization’s (WHO) emergency threshold of 15 percent, the UN reports. Until the 2017 gu season, countrywide GAM levels had remained at or below the emergency threshold since June 2014. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and partners continue to respond to chronically high levels of acute malnutrition by providing health, nutrition, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services to drought-affected populations in Somalia.

WHO cautions that despite a significant reduction in cholera cases and related deaths since July, relief actors should continue prevention activities during the deyr rainy season as the risks of potential cholera transmission are still high due to poor sanitation and access to safe drinking water, as well as limited health care services. Overall, the Federal Government of Somalia and WHO recorded more than 78,200 suspected and confirmed cases of cholera and 1,159 related deaths between January and October, with a case fatality rate (CFR) of nearly 1.5 percent. In FY 2017, USAID/OFDA provided implementing partners more than $29.2 million to deliver emergency WASH assistance, including cholera prevention activities, throughout Somalia.

ETHIOPIA

Unrest and violence along the Oromiya–Somali regional border since July has resulted in approximately 578,000 new internally displaced persons (IDP) in Oromiya Region, including nearly 458,500 people from Oromiya and more than 119,700 people from Somali Region, according to the Oromiya Regional Disaster Risk Management Commission and humanitarian partners. Relief actors have identified shelter support as one of the most critical needs among IDPs, with approximately 40 percent of IDPs reporting inadequate shelter conditions. IDPs also identified food, health, nutrition, and WASH needs due to the effects of ongoing conflict and population movement.

On October 12, the UN, in coordination with the Government of Ethiopia (GoE), released a Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) Status Update, revising the funding request to address humanitarian needs in Ethiopia from nearly $1.3 billion as of August to more than $1.4 billion as of mid-October. Food sector needs were revised upwards to account for the inclusion of 4 million beneficiaries of the GoE-managed Productive Safety Net Program. In addition, health and nutrition needs have increased due to deteriorating food security conditions in Somali, increased displacement, and fall armyworm infestations, according to the HRD Status Update. As of mid-October, the HRD had received nearly $1.2 billion in funding, or approximately 83 percent of the $1.4 billion request.

On October 27, the GoE began accepting civil registration applications from refugees for vital life events, including births, deaths, divorce, and marriage. The GoE had not registered the births of more than 70,000 refugee children born in Ethiopia since 2007; however, the new initiative enables refugees in Ethiopia to register vital life events retroactively. Humanitarian actors in Ethiopia applauded the new initiative as a measure to improve refugee access to public services, such as education.

As of September 30, nearly 884,000 refugees were sheltering in Ethiopia, representing the second largest refugee population in Africa, according to the UN. More than 100,000 refugees arrived in Ethiopia, primarily from South Sudan, between January and September. In FY 2017, USAID/FFP contributed more than $50 million to support the UN World Food Program (WFP) refugee operations in Ethiopia.

Health actors recorded more than 47,700 cases of acute water diarrhea (AWD) and nearly 900 related deaths between January and October, representing a CFR of 1.8 percent, according to WHO. Despite a reduced countrywide caseload, seven of Ethiopia’s nine regions reported active AWD transmission, recording 325 new cases during the week of October 23. In addition, the UN warns that a resurgence in AWD cases could occur in Amhara, Oromiya, and Tigray regions if health actors do not maintain current AWD prevention and control procedures. In FY 2017, USAID/OFDA provided nearly $18.4 million to support AWD preparedness and prevention activities and other emergency WASH interventions across Ethiopia.

KENYA

Civil unrest related to the August and October presidential elections in Kenya resulted in nearly 55 deaths and at least 150 injuries, according to KNCHR. Humanitarian organizations continue to monitor the situation for additional violence, and USAID partners maintain pre-positioned emergency relief commodities to assist people affected by election-related unrest, as needed.

In response to election-related civil unrest, the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) deployed emergency medical teams across Kenya, equipped to treat up to 150,000 people. USAID/OFDA supported KRCS by providing more than $500,000 in FY 2017 to pre-position emergency relief commodities and shelter materials in strategic locations throughout the country. USAID/OFDA also supported World Vision to co-lead elections preparedness and response mechanisms equipped to address needs related to possible election-related displacement in Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret, Nakuru, Mombasa, and Isiolo/Marsabit counties.

Between August and October, approximately 3.4 million people experienced food insecurity, of which an estimated 2.1 million people faced Crisis-level acute food insecurity and 500,000 people faced Emergency levels of acute food insecurity, FEWS NET reports. An additional 800,000 people continue to experience Stressed—IPC 2—level food insecurity. The key drivers of food insecurity in Kenya include consecutive below-average rainy seasons, high food prices, inadequate pasture, atypical livestock migration, and low agricultural productivity, among other factors.

The Government of Uganda’s Ministry of Health declared a Marburg virus disease (MVD) outbreak on October 17. As of November 8, health actors recorded three confirmed or suspected cases of MVD, a highly infectious disease that manifests as a viral hemorrhagic fever. Government of Kenya (GoK) health authorities in Trans-Nzoia County—which borders Uganda—issued a MVD alert on October 31, following reports of a suspected MVD case in Trans-Nzoia’s Kaisagat area. Initial laboratory tests of one suspected MVD case were negative; however, GoK health actors continue to perform laboratory diagnostics. Government officials, health workers, and security officers from Kenya and Uganda met on November 10 in Kapchorwa District in eastern Uganda to establish mechanisms to share disease surveillance data across districts and borders in response to the recorded MVD cases, WHO reports. In addition, participants of the meeting agreed to develop infection prevention and control measures, as well as epidemic preparedness and response plans. Local health officials are mobilizing community awareness-raising efforts, according to local media.