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Export Dependence and Export Concentration

The evidence on export concentration presented in this UNDP report indicates an increasing tendency towards export concentration across developing countries. In 2009, the top 25 countries with the highest concentration ratios were all developing countries.

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In addition to identifying performance indicators for each result in its Results Framework, USAID's CDCS Guidance specifies that, where available, baseline values are to be included in a CDCS.

The availability of baseline data for CDCS performance indicators varies by sector and the type of indicators a Mission has selected. For some indicators at the IR and Sub-IR levels that Missions include, international data series exist. The World Bank's Doing Business Indicators and Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index are examples of this sort. For other indicators, the partner country may routinely collect data. As long as there is a reasonable basis for treating existing data series as being valid and reliable, these sources can be used for specifying baseline values and for monitoring progress across a CDCS period.

International data series exist for a wide variety of trade indicators. The World Bank maintains one of the largest collections of trade indicator data. Other important collections include trade statistics available through the WTO, UNCTAD, and the ITC.

In a Performance Indicators and Baselines Table for a CDCS, as illustrated below, baseline years, as well as values, should be identified. The template for this table is available for your online use.

Performance Indicators and Baselines Table for a CDCS
Results LevelResults StatementPerformance IndicatorsType of IndicatorBaseline Values, if available (Value/Year)
IR 3.1Improved trade performance in MalawiForeign trade (X+M) as a percentage of GDStandard58.7 (2011)
Total merchandise exports - valueCustom$1,250 million (2011)
Export Concentration IndexCustom528 (2007-20111)
 << Custom IndicatorsUpCDCS Performance Indicator and Baseline Template (Optional) >>

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A toolkit developed and implemented by:
Office of Trade and Regulatory Reform
Bureau of Economic Growth, Education, and Environment
US Agency for International Development (USAID)

For more information, please contact Paul Fekete.