Tracking the First- and Second-Order Impacts of COVID-19

Speeches Shim

One year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, USAID conducted a landscape analysis in an effort to assess the latest trends and forecasts around COVID-19’s first-and second-order impacts on USAID sectors and regions. This analysis is organized based on six categories of impacts: the health crisis, macroeconomic and mobility shocks, household impacts (including poverty, inequality, food security, and education), shifts in democratic governance and civic engagement, national security, and climate change. This analysis is not exhaustive, but intended to provide a high-level synthesis of the best available data from USAID and external institutions to understand the pandemic’s global impacts.

The data used in this analysis are derived from a range of public sources, including real time, daily updates on caseloads and second-order impacts, modeled forecasts of COVID-19’s impacts, quantitative estimates of underlying risks and vulnerabilities, high-frequency phone surveys of households, and qualitative research and reports from third-party institutions. This paper includes not only the measured or forecasted first-and second-order impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, but also government response measures and policy actions to mitigate the crisis, as each country’s policy response will be critical to determining the pandemic’s trajectory, impacts, and long-term recovery efforts.

Date 
Thursday, May 20, 2021 - 7:30pm

Last updated: June 11, 2021