ETHIOPIA

	FY 1998 Actual	FY 1999 Estimate	FY 2000 Request
Development Assistance	$17,000,000	$13,950,000	---
Development Fund for Africa	---	---	$12,200,000
Child Survival and Disease	$25,885,000	$25,965,000	$25,550,000
P.L. 480 Title II	$62,888,000	$43,101,000	$38,100,000
P.L. 480 Title III	$9,900,000	$5,700,000	---

Introduction.

Regional stability and responding to Ethiopia's continuing food insecurity lie at the core of U.S. national interests in the country. Ethiopia has thus far pursued international diplomacy to resolve its recent border problems with Eritrea avoiding, thereby, a man-made crisis with potentially significant human costs. Growing internal harmony, good rains and better policy have led to increased agricultural production in recent years, but continued dependence on rainfall, low incomes, inadequate transportation, and immature markets still constrain the ability of most Ethiopians to obtain adequate diets. These problems are best addressed via strategies which also promote U.S. interests in economic prosperity, increased adherence to democratic practices and respect for human rights, stabilizing world population, and protecting human health.

The Development Challenge.

USAID's program addresses five problems: (1) food insecurity and agricultural development; (2) poor health; (3) a rapidly growing population; (4) human capacity development; and (5) the transition to democratic institutions.

The most recent Food and Agricultural Organization/World Food Program report estimated that 26 million Ethiopians, or more than 40% of the country's farming population, did not produce enough food and income to meet the basic nutritional needs of their families. USAID's approach to food security includes safety nets for those affected by emergencies (e.g., droughts or floods), food-for-work programs designed to maintain the incomes of chronically food insecure groups while building rural infrastructure (e.g., market roads or small-scale irrigation systems), and activities to increase the production and efficient marketing of selected foodgrains.

During FY 1998, emergency assistance to Ethiopia totaled $34.1 million (including 75,000 metric tons of wheat and sorghum) and reached approximately 1.6 million Ethiopians. These resources provided up to two months of food support for approximately 1.4 million people affected by drought throughout the country; food support, seeds and agricultural tools to 55,000 people affected by flooding along Ethiopia's border with Kenya and Somalia; and three months of food and other types of support to 150,000 Ethiopians displaced by the border conflict with Eritrea. The United States also provided 35,000 metric tons of P.L. 480 Title II non-emergency wheat, valued at $16.0 million, to approximately 900,000 Ethiopians in the country's chronically food insecure areas.

USAID's food security program also includes support for the policy reform and institutional development needed to enhance the efficiency of Ethiopian agriculture, ensure sustainable use of the natural resource base, expand markets for agricultural products, increase the incomes of farmer households and improve nutrition through education. During 1998, a pilot program to restructure farmer cooperatives in the Oromiya region to conform to more modern business practices together with Title III policy initiatives which deregulated fertilizer prices saved members approximately $390,000 on the purchase of fertilizer. In 1995, cooperatives, for the first time in their history, started paying dividends to their members; in 1998, cereal cooperatives paid members dividends ranging from $.07 to $52.08 (average per capita income is $120/yr). This program will be extended to two other regions.

At current growth rates, Ethiopia's population will almost triple to 145 million by 2025, yet approximately one-fourth of Ethiopia's children currently die before their fifth birthday, and the maternal mortality rate is estimated to be one of the highest in the world. USAID's approach to these problems emphasizes policy reform (increased public expenditures on preventive and primary health care and health care financing reform), the expansion of integrated health and family planning services, including HIV/AIDS prevention programs in urban areas, and the delivery of preventive, primary health care services to the 12 million people in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region. During FY 1998, the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) increased the budget allocation to primary and preventive health care by about 4%; there was a 40% increase in the couple years of protection generated over last year; and the GFDRE adopted a national HIV/AIDS policy.

Less than 35% of Ethiopia's elementary school age population is enrolled in primary school, with even lower enrollment rates for girls and rural children. USAID's approach to increasing primary enrollments is directed at strengthening the system's financing and administrative capacity, increasing public investment in primary education, improving teacher training and the quality of educational materials, and increasing community involvement in school management and support. The most notable achievement for this objective in FY 1998 was that USAID nonproject assistance encouraged the GFDRE to make education, at 18% of the national budget, the single largest budget item.

As Ethiopia's transition to democracy has proceeded, USAID's focus has shifted from election support and constitutional reform to supporting the development of an independent judiciary, the strengthening of Ethiopian non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the decentralization of government functions, including strengthening the capacity of regional governments to manage the delivery of health, family planning and educational services. During FY 1998, decentralization activities were particularly effective, eliminating the accounting backlog which had plagued the GFDRE for years, and reducing a four year backlog at the regional level in 1996 to 18 months at the end of 1998.

Other Donors.

As of 1996, the United States ranked first among bilateral donors to Ethiopia, followed by Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Major multilateral donors include International Development Association, the United Nations Development Program, the World Food Program and the World Bank. During FY 1998, USAID joined other leading bilateral and multilateral donors to support the education and health sector development programs of the GFDRE because these programs are consistent with the objectives of the USAID strategy. During FY 1999, USAID expects to join discussions with the GFDRE and other donors on a coordinated approach to food security. USAID and the Canadian International Development Agency are also coordinating support to build the capacity of the Ethiopian judiciary.

FY 2000 Program.

USAID is requesting FY 2000 child survival funds to continue on-going programs in basic education and integrated primary health care (PPHC), including childhood immunization and HIV/AIDS prevention programs. FY 2000 population funds will also support PPHC activities. FY 2000 development assistance will be used to continue activities in judicial reform, Ethiopian NGO strengthening, and decentralization of government, and agricultural development activities. The use of FY 2000 Title II non-emergency resources will be better integrated with USAID's on-going agriculture and health programs.

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ETHIOPIA

FY 2000 PROGRAM SUMMARY
(in thousands of dollars)

USAID Mission Director, Keith Brown

USAID Strategic and Special Objectives	Economic Growth & Agriculture	Population & Health	Environment	Democracy	Human Capacity Development	Humanitarian Assistance	TOTALS
S.O 1. Increased Availability of Selected Domestically Produced Food Grain Crops. - DFA	3,000	---	500	---	---	---	3,500
S.O. 2, Increased Use of Primary and Preventive Health Care Services. - DFA - CS	--- ---	6,000 12,200	--- ---	--- ---	--- ---	--- ---	6,000 12,200
S.O. 3. Quality and Equity of Primary Education Improved in an Expanded System. - CS	---	---	---	---	13,350	---	13,350
S.O. 4. Effective Government and Civil Society Organizations Developed to Promote Democratic Governance. - DFA	---	---	---	2,400	---	---	2,400
SP.O. 1. Enhanced Food Security in Target Areas. - DFA - P.L. 480/II	300 ---	--- ---	--- ---	--- ---	--- ---	--- 38,100	300 38,100
Totals - DFA - CS - P.L. 480/II	3,300 --- ---	6,000 12,200 ---	500 --- ---	2,400 --- ---	--- 13,350 ---	--- --- 38,100	12,200 25,550 38,100

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ACTIVITY DATA SHEET

PROGRAM: ETHIOPIA
TITLE & NUMBER: Increased Availability of Selected Domestically Produced Foodgrains, 663-SO01
STATUS: Continuing
PROPOSE OBLIGATION & FUNDING SOURCE: FY 2000: $3,500,000 DFA
INITIAL OBLIGATION: FY 1996 ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE: FY 2006

Summary: In only three of the last 15 years has the average annual per capita domestic grain consumption (excluding food aid) exceeded the recommended minimum level of 171 kilograms. Farmers have been unable to exploit Ethiopia's considerable potential because of negative policies and state intervention, and a failure to utilize modern production technologies, inputs and cultivation practices. The purpose of this Strategic Objective is to increase the availability of selected, domestically produced foodgrains. It is recognized, however, that increased production alone does not ensure adequate consumption, as demonstrated during the bumper harvest of 1996/1997 when, despite an abundance of grain in the markets, many Ethiopians were still unable to produce or afford to buy enough food. The beneficiaries of this objective are the majority of Ethiopians who either produce for their own consumption or must purchase food on the market. More immediate beneficiaries are the millions of rural households, small farmers and small agricultural businesses (including membership-based cooperatives) whose incomes are expected to increase through more efficient agricultural production, harvest and processing techniques.

Key Results: Five key results are linked to the achievement of this Objective: (1) increased adoption of improved foodgrain technology packages in target areas; (2) increased participation of private retailers in agricultural inputs markets; (3) the implementation of policies and regulations favorable to private sector involvement in input markets; (4) increased private sector participation in foodgrain markets, and (5) implementation of policies and regulations favorable to private involvement in foodgrain markets.

Performance and Prospects: Over the course of the past year, selected activities have performed exceptionally well, others less so, and one has been temporarily suspended. Prospects for improved performance, however, have increased because the central and regional governments have reached agreement on a coordinated approach to food security which is under review by a joint team of donors, including the United States.

As of February 1998, the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) lifted the last price control on fertilizer; now there is no GFDRE involvement in setting fertilizer prices or providing fertilizer subsidies. Fertilizer distribution and retailing have been opened to the private sector. During 1997/1998, the private sector imported 202,100 metric tons of fertilizer, an amount approximately five times greater than in 1994/95. Foreign exchange is now readily available to the private sector for the importation of fertilizer. Total fertilizer sales increased from 150,000 metric tons in 1992 to 279,685 metric tons in 1998. Due to the introduction of a fertilizer auction system by a USAID-supported, Volunteers in Overseas Cooperative Assistance (VOCA) pilot cooperative development program in the Oromiya region, farmers saved $390,000 on the purchase of fertilizer in 1998 over the prices they paid in 1997. USAID has been asked by two other regional governments to extend the VOCA cooperatives development program to their regions.

Since market liberalization began in 1991, efficiency of agricultural markets has increased. Regional grain price differentials have dropped significantly and prices in grain surplus areas rose by 12%, while those in grain deficit areas fell by 6%. Price increases in grain surplus areas provide incentives for farmers to produce surpluses, while price declines in grain deficit areas help consumers stretch limited household incomes. A reduction in the tariff for grain imports from 30% to 5% made commercial imports profitable in 1998 when domestic shortfalls resulted in price increases. As a result, over 100,000 metric tons of grain were imported by the private sector in 1998. Ninety percent of the retailers trained by the USAID-supported VOCA program reported using modern business practices as opposed to 24% before the training; 80% reported substantial reductions in storage losses after VOCA training. In response to Title III conditions, established with the GFDRE, a proclamation establishing a legal framework for the operation of microfinance institutions (MFIs) was issued in 1996, thereby increasing access to credit for small borrowers. Results have been positive. As of October 1998, for example, Amhara region's MFI has a client base of 79,905 (50% women) and provides loans of up to approximately $350; outstanding loans total $4.1 million; reimbursement rate is 97.5%. USAID assistance to the Central Statistics Authority has allowed it to issue better quality agriculture production estimates on time to be used as input into the GFDRE's yearly analyses of food aid needs. Upon the GFDRE's request, USAID provided key technical assistance, towards a major pesticide disposal program.

One setback in 1998 was the GFDRE's request to terminate the contractor implementing the grain market research and market information systems development. The GFDRE has indicated interest in continuing the activity, but has not yet reached internal agreement on its content or institutional arrangements. This program's work has been suspended since May 1998.

Possible Adjustments to Plans: In response to the GFDRE's new food security program, USAID began discussions with the Amhara Regional Government on activities to support its strategies in this regard. Activities currently under consideration include: watershed, soil fertility and natural resource base management; agricultural cooperative development; rural financial markets development; the development and dissemination of improved crop and livestock packages, and nutrition education. These activities support the objectives of USAID's African Food Security Initiative and the Greater Horn of Africa Initiative and will result in a restructuring of USAID's agricultural development objective.

Other Donor Programs: The United States is an active participant, along with the European Union, Germany, Italy, Canada, the World Food Program and the World Bank, in discussions with the GFDRE on its new food security program. The World Bank is the primary donor on fertilizer, seed and agricultural research programs. Assistance from Italy enhances grain production in one of the major growing areas. Canada will provide funds to build capacity for small-scale irrigation schemes in selected regions. USAID's assistance has emphasized improving agricultural markets, increasing the availability of market information, and expanding participation by the private sector.

Principal Contractors, Grantees, or Agencies: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Volunteers in Overseas Cooperative Assistance, Winrock International, Michigan State University (terminated in 1998).

Selected Performance Measures:

*NOTE: Baselines likely to change once a new program is finalized.

	Baseline (1992)	Target (2000)	Target (2006)
Increased Yield/Hectare*    Maize    Wheat	1.1 MT/ha .8 MT/ha	2.0 MT/ha 1.0 MT/ha	2.5 MT/ha 1.5 MT/ha
# coops in target areas paying member dividends*	19 (1997)	2.2 MT/ha	25 (1999)

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ACTIVITY DATA SHEET

PROGRAM: ETHIOPIA
TITLE&NUMBER: Increased Use of Primary and Preventive Health Care Services, 663-SO02
STATUS: Continuing
PROPOSED OBLIGATION&FUNDING SOURCE: FY 2000: $6,000,000 DFA; $12,200,000 CS
INITIAL OBLIGATION: FY 1995 ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE: FY 2003

Summary: Underfinancing of the health system has severely weakened the availability of basic health services. It is estimated that more than 80% of Ethiopians must walk more than two hours to reach a health facility. Child mortality is, most often due to dehydration from diarrhea, complications of malaria, and other preventable diseases. Poor nutrition and infections, together with high fertility (the average Ethiopian woman bears nearly eight children in her life time), contribute to one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the world, estimated at 14 maternal deaths per 1,000 live births. Furthermore, current estimates suggest that one out of every 14 adults in Ethiopia may be infected with HIV (approximately three million people) while the number of AIDS cases may be over 400,000. The purpose of this objective is to increase the use of primary and preventative health care (PPHC) services.

Key Results: The key intermediate results that have been determined necessary to achieve this objective are: (1) increased resources dedicated to the health sector, particularly primary and preventive health care; (2) increased access to and demand for modern contraceptives in focus areas; (3) enhanced capacity of Ethiopian society to expand access to and use of STI/HIV/AIDS services in response to the epidemic; and (4) increased use of PPHC services in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR).

Performance and Prospects: The performance of this objective during FY 1998 was encouraging. To date, non-project assistance (NPA) to support budgetary reforms as well as project assistance towards better sectoral planning and budget development has been provided. Results include: (1) a shift in the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFRDE) budget so that the share of health sector allocations increased from 5.8% in FY 1995 to 6.3% in FY 1998; (2) a shift within the health budget in favor of PPHC resulting in an 11% annual increase of resources allocated to it over the past three years; and (3) the Council of Ministers approved a new Health Care Financing Strategy, which includes such recommendations as revised fee structures, retention at the facility level, and increased private sector investment in the health sector. Furthermore, as a result of NPA conditionality, the GFDRE approved a National HIV/AIDS Policy and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) government increased regional budget allocations for non-salary recurrent item by more than 10% this fiscal year over the last.

Performance in the area of reproductive health has also been encouraging. Ministry of Health service statistics indicate that steady progress was made in increasing the national contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) from 8% last year to 10%. FY 1998 saw a 40% increase in Couple Years Protection (CYP) generated (350,000 CYP) over last year. This has been a result of increased access to modern family planning services through support to local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This fiscal year, the private sector marketed 34 million condoms, 500,000 cycles of oral contraceptives, contributing toward the increase in CYP.

To date, activities in the SNNPR have focused on strengthening the regional government's capacity to provide services and to revitalize community health services. Achievements include: (1) preliminary development of a Health Management Information Systems as well as training for 60 people on the new systems; (2) development of curricula for the training institutes to provide PPHC training and training 679 health workers from various zones and woredas on PPHC topics; (3) training of trainers for core members to strengthen the health and financial management capacity of the Regional Health Bureau who have in turn trained 90 accountants selected from health facilities, and zonal health offices; and (4) rehabilitation community health posts, refurbishment of small water systems and training of community health workers and traditional birth attendants. Achievements in the SNNPR this fiscal year also include: (a) 67.8% of children (12-23 months) fully vaccinated; and (b) 48.7% and 7.8% of reproductive age women received ante-natal care and modern family planning services, respectively.

Possible Adjustments to Plan: In July 1998, the GFDRE finalized the Health Sector Development Program (HSDP) in close collaboration with other donors. The objectives of the HSDP are consistent with those USAID seeks to accomplish with regard to child health and family planning, increased access to primary and preventive health care, and sustainable health financing. However, adjustments to USAID's program have to be made to better align its activities to those of the GFDRE and other donors under the HSDP. For example, USAID expects to be less directly involved in promoting a favorable policy environment for PPHC delivery and use, as this will be addressed within the HSDP. Instead more emphasis will be given towards institutional reforms that enable effective implementation of the HSDP, as mechanisms for more effective policy dialogue are developed. As a partner in the HSDP, USAID expects to closely monitor both the progress on HSDP implementation as well as on policy developments.

Host Country and Other Donors: USAID has worked collaboratively with the GFDRE and other donors to design and align its assistance with the HSDP. Other major donors in health sector include the World Bank, African Development Bank, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, UNICEF, the United Nations Family Planning Association and the World Health Organization. USAID is the only bilateral donor to sit on the Central Joint Steering Committee for the HSDP and the parallel Education Sector Development Program.

Beneficiaries: Beneficiaries will include 50% of the 12 million people who live in SNNPR, and an estimated 10 million urban residents nationally who will benefit from family planning, and AIDS prevention and control activities.

Principal Contractors, Grantees and Agencies: Pathfinder, Family Health International, Population Service International, and the Consortium of Family Planning NGOs in Ethiopia.

Major Result Indicators

	Baseline (1995)	Target (2000)	Target (2002)
Modern Contraceptive Prevalence Rate	2%	10%	14%
Health as a percent of national budget	5.8%	6.2%	7%
Number of condoms distributed annually	20 million	42 million	50 million
Proportion of children (12-23 months) fully vaccinated in SNNPR	39%	80.%	85%

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ACTIVITY DATA SHEET

PROGRAM: ETHIOPIA
TITLE & NUMBER: Quality and Equity of Primary Education Improved in an Expanded System, 663-SO03
STATUS: Continuing
PROPOSED OBLIGATION & FUNDING SOURCE: FY 2000: $13,350,000 CS
INITIAL OBLIGATION: FY 1995 ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE: FY 2002

Summary: When BESO was initiated in 1994, only 20% of the eligible boys and girls were enrolled in the Ethiopian primary schools with the enrollment of girls being much lower than that of boys. Fifty percent of the students who enrolled in primary school dropped out before completing third grade. Quality suffered because teachers and school directors were largely untrained; the curriculum was too complex, lacked a focus on basic literacy and numeracy, and was largely irrelevant to rural life. Education was also severely under-funded with almost no resources available for textbooks, new or rehabilitated schools, and the system lacked the analytic and planning capabilities needed to maximize results from limited resources. The purpose of this Strategic Objective, therefore, is to improve the quality and equity of primary education in an expanded system by improving education sector policy, financing, and decentralized administration, and improving the supply of critical inputs such as teachers, curricula, and books.

Key Results: The Strategic Objective for Ethiopia's Basic Education System Overhaul (BESO) Program consists of five intermediate Results which aim to: 1) improve the primary school environment and foster increased learning, particularly for girls; 2) provide more effective school-level inputs in a more efficient manner; 3) improve the quality and equity of pre-service teacher training; 4) strengthen the decentralized management and administration of primary education; and 5) improve sector financing through increased and better utilized budgets.

Performance and Prospects: Performance over the last year has been encouraging. As a result of BESO non-project assistance conditionality, the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia's (GFDRE) financial allocation to education comprises the largest share of its overall national budget, more than 18% in 1997/1998, up from 15% in the previous year. Within the education budget, primary education has also continued to increase its share from 47% in the base year (1994/1995) to 54% in 1997/1998. The financing of education is being diversified, with an increase in the number of private schools and through the cost-sharing measures being planned at secondary and tertiary levels.

The 900 schools involved in the BESO Community-School Grants Program (CSGP) component have reduced female repetition rates, made school environments conducive to female students, and established closer relationships between participating schools and communities. More than 5,000 school directors and senior teachers have been trained in modern school management. A curriculum development manual was completed and, for the first time, curriculum development required direct input from teachers, students and communities. Textbook production contracts are now being competed with private sector participation, resulting in more private sector participation in the provision of services to schools.

BESO focus regions (Tigray and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region) are now giving more emphasis to educational research and innovative ideas to improve their education development efforts. The Ministry of Education and these two regions are also making use of the minimum primary schooling standards to monitor progress on quality objectives. Teacher training methods and facilities are improving, with female trainees receiving increased attention. Planning and policy analysis techniques are improving, including the use of school location mapping, and are being used to make informed policy decisions. Gender related objectives are being met in part with the admission of 1,000 more female trainees annually into primary teacher training institutes. A national action plan has been prepared to enhance girls' education in the different regions.

Possible Adjustments to Plans: Since BESO was initiated, the GFDRE has developed a new focused Education Sector Development Program (ESDP) whose objectives are to improve overall educational attainment of the population with greater social equity, and to achieve universal basic education by 2015. These objectives are compatible with those of BESO, and a mid-term assessment to better align BESO activities with ESDP objectives was completed in June 1998. Major changes to BESO are not anticipated although adjustments at the intermediate results level are likely. Because of the border conflict with Eritrea, implementation of BESO activities have been slowed in Tigray and implementation schedules adjusted.

Host Country and Other Donors: The United States is seen as the major bilateral donor in basic education. Other donors supporting primary education include the World Bank, UNICEF, Sweden, Germany, Finland and Ireland. Currently, Japan is developing a sector assistance program and is exploring ways to develop a coordinated approach with USAID. USAID, as the only bilateral member of the GFDRE-led Central Joint Steering Committee responsible for the implementation of ESDP and a similar program in the health sector, represents donor interests to the GFDRE.

Principal Contractors, Grantees, or Agencies: Academy for Educational Development, World Learning, Inc., and Tigray Development Association (an Ethiopian NGO).

Selected Performance Measures: :

	Baseline (1994/95)	Target (2000)	Target (2002)
Primary school graduation examination raw scores Tigray SNNPR	51% 43%	55% 42%	60% 49%
Primary school female enrollment rates Tigray SNNPR	40% 20%	47% 33%	48% 37%
Share of females in grade 4 Tigray SNNPR	42% 30%	49% 37%	50% 46%

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ACTIVITY DATA SHEET

PROGRAM: ETHIOPIA
TITLE AND NUMBER: Increased Access to and Participation in a Democratic System, 663-SO04
STATUS: Continuing
PROPOSED OBLIGATION AND FUNDING SOURCES: FY 2000: $2,400,000 DFA
INITIAL OBLIGATION: FY 1992 ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE: 2002

Summary: USAID began its democracy and governance support activities in Ethiopia in 1992, shortly after the downfall of the dictatorial Derg regime. The purpose of this Strategic Objective is to nurture the success of Ethiopia's new federal democratic system by providing selected assistance to the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (GFDRE) and civil society organizations (CSOs). Over the past year, USAID concentrated most of its resources in three ongoing activities: decentralization of government, strengthening the judiciary, and enhancement of civil society. USAID also participated in a multi-donor project coordinated by the United Nations Development Program to strengthen Parliament. USAID has initiated discussions with the GFDRE and non-governmental bodies, and taken a lead in coordinating other donor efforts, to ensure the success of national elections scheduled for the year 2000. The direct beneficiaries of USAID's activities are the governmental and civil society organizations receiving support. The ultimate beneficiaries are the 60 million Ethiopian citizens.

Key Results: Three intermediate results contribute to the Strategic Objective: (1) Decentralization is being approached through the provision of effective and transparent resource allocation and management (i.e., budget, accounting and public investment planning) systems at the federal and regional levels. (2) Judicial strengthening is being accomplished through working with the judiciary to train judges and to institutionalize judicial training. (3) Civil society is being strengthened by working with individual CSOs to improve their organizational capacity and by encouraging the evolution of an environment favorable to CSO activity.

Performance and Prospects: Significant progress has been made in decentralization. An accounting backlog at the federal level was eliminated and, at the regional level, reduced from four years at the end of FY 1996, to 18 months at the end of FY 1998. The accounting system has been extensively reviewed and a new accounting training program launched at three regional management training institutes and the Ethiopian Civil Service Training College. A Public Investment Program was initiated at the federal level and preparations were underway for its devolution to the regional states. Results in this area are generally on target, although some federal level policy decisions have been delayed due to the border conflict with Eritrea.

After a very successful emergency training program for unqualified judges during FY 1997, no judicial training took place during FY 1998. The year was taken up with negotiations with the GFDRE on the future of the program and with evaluating the past training. At year end the path seemed clear for the institutionalization of judicial training under the Federal Supreme Court, in close collaboration with the work of other donors interested in strengthening the judiciary.

Good results were obtained in civil society organizations (CSOs). By year end registration and re-registration of CSOs had become routine. More than 70 new CSOs had been registered, down from an original target of 100. USAID's grantee, PACT, formally assessed the organizational capacity of 26 additional NGOs, compared to a target of 20. PACT assisted 22 CSOs in adopting strategic plans and 26 CSOs in adopting financial systems. PACT commenced working with 15 NGOs in the health sector, emphasizing the cross sectoral importance of civil society.

Finally, U.S. support to the Ethiopian Parliament enabled it to convene a national conference on human rights in FY 1998 that should lead to a human rights commission and an Office of the Ombudsman to address civil rights issues.

Possible Adjustments to plans: In judicial strengthening the emphasis shifted from a second wave of ad hoc training to the creation of a sustainable training program which would cater to the needs of both new recruits to the judiciary and the continuing professional development of serving judges in an evolving legal system. National elections are scheduled for 2000 and USAID expects to join other donors in helping support the government's capacity to conduct free and fair elections.

Other Donor Programs: USAID activities in democracy and governance are coordinated with those of other donors through a variety of consultative groups operating under the general aegis of the ambassadorial sub-group for democracy, good governance and human rights. The Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) is planning a multi-million dollar investment in judicial administration. USAID's work in judicial training is being designed in close consultation with CIDA. USAID has taken the lead in organizing coordination among donors, including Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Canada, Norway, and the European Union, currently or potentially involved with the judiciary.

Principal Contractors, Grantees or Agencies: Harvard Institute for International Development and PACT

Selected Performance Measures:

	Baseline (1995)	Target (2000)
Decentralization: Strengthened and reformed budget process and accounting systems at federal and regional levels	Poor budget structures and expenditures codes, off-budget financing, budgets not linked to plans. Inadequate accounting procedures with substantial backlogs at federal and regional level. Inadequate Public Investment Program with unclear links between investment and planning.	Improved accounting, budgeting and financial planning systems in use at federal and regional levels. 2640 trained in accounts, 1880 in budgets, 720 in planning. Public Investment Program in place in 51 public bodies at federal level and in nine regions.
Judicial strengthening	Newly appointed regional judges with little or no judicial training (1995) and no institutionalized provision for meeting training needs of the judicial sector.	Entry level training for all newly appointed judges (a number not yet determined); annual in-service training for 300 sitting judges
Civil society: Increased number of CSOs with sound institutional capacity registered and functioning	CSO registration procedures ill-defined; few CSOs found to have effective strategic plans and management systems; no CSOs found to have effective financial systems.	90 registered CSOs have strategic plans and effective management and financial systems.

ACTIVITY DATA SHEET

PROGRAM: Ethiopia
TITLE & NUMBER: Enhanced Household Food Security in Target Areas, 663-SPO1
STATUS: Continuing
PROPOSED OBLIGATION & FUNDING SOURCE: FY 2000: $300,000 DFA; $38,100,000 P.L. 480 Title II
INITIAL OBLIGATION: FY 1996 ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE: Continuing

Summary: The purpose of this special objective is to increase the capacity of chronically vulnerable households to be food secure. In FY 1998, the United States provided over 35,000 metric tons (MT) of commodities, valued at $16.0 million, from Title II non-emergency resources to approximately 900,000 Ethiopians in the country's chronically food insecure regions. It also provided emergency humanitarian assistance, valued at $34.0 million (including 75,000 MT of wheat and sorghum) to Ethiopians affected by drought or floods or displaced by the current border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Through the Strengthening Ethiopia's Emergency Response Abilities (SERA) program, this objective also supports the efforts of the Ethiopian Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) to prepare reliable vulnerability profiles of selected disaster prone areas of the country, conduct in-depth vulnerability research and studies on the root causes of vulnerability, and strengthen DPPC's response mechanisms and development interventions, through the incorporation of research and assessment results.

Key Results: Although this objective experienced serious funding shortfalls in FY 1998 due to difficulties related to the monetization of commodities, some cooperating sponsors reported significant progress. Farmers in the food insecure regions of Tigray increased their use of fertilizer and improved seeds; planned farmer training by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church reached 80% of its target; Catholic Relief Services increased the number of fully immunized children; and World Vision activities in conservation, environmental rehabilitation and farmer training were only slightly off targets. DPPC activities, including identifying pilot areas for the development of vulnerability profiles and identifying and assessing up to 74 specific indications of vulnerability, moved ahead. In FY 1998, the Title II emergency program reached approximately 1.6 million Ethiopians.

Performance and Prospects: Because funding difficulties constrained Title II program performance in 1998, USAID and its cooperating sponsors will be seeking medium and longer term funding options should funding through monetization mechanisms not be feasible. Both USAID and cooperating sponsors expect adjustments to their programs depending upon how this problem is resolved. The DPPC activity is progressing well and is viewed as significantly contributing to its capacity to respond more effectively to the needs of vulnerable areas of the country. Resource shortages also reduced the results of FY 1998 emergency programs. The GFDRE had appealed for 573,000 MT of emergency food aid to meet the needs of over 4.2 million people over a period of nine months. However, donor pledges, including the US 75,000 MT, met only 58% of the appeal. In addition, 44,000 MT of the U.S. donation got stuck in Eritrea when the port of Assab was closed as a result of the Ethiopia/Eritrea border conflict. Together, these factors reduced the number of people reached by emergency assistance by about 50%.

A key objective of USAID's emergency assistance to drought affected populations was to avoid negative coping mechanisms, e.g., moving permanently or selling productive assets. However, because less than half of the estimated requirements were met, those affected did not receive assistance as planned and were obliged to utilize severe coping mechanisms. Reports indicate drought-affected laborers were away from their families for longer periods and earned less money because wages dropped by more than one-third, to 15 cents per day in some areas; the consumption of wild plants, considered to be a last resort option, became very common in the highland areas; farmers' indebtedness increased significantly, reducing their ability to return to a "better lifestyle" despite a prognosis for better harvests this year; and, because of poor nutrition, the incidence of disease and death, particularly from malaria, in the food insecure areas of the country has increased significantly.

Although the timeliness and targeting of emergency assistance has been effective, the number of displaced persons due to the Ethiopian-Eritrean border conflict has grown to over 300,000 as opposed to the 150,000 people for which the assistance was provided. At this time, the conflict continues, raising fears that this population may require long-term assistance, and that their ability to stand on their own will remain severely limited as long as they cannot return to their homes and farms.

Possible Adjustments to Plans: If food monetization issues can not be resolved, resource levels will be reduced and targets adjusted downwards. If these issues are resolved satisfactorily, no program adjustments are anticipated.

Other Donor Programs: Coordination between donors providing food aid to Ethiopia and the DPPC is constructive and collaborative. Assessments are increasingly joint and the formulation and implementation of various food aid management-related programming bring together United Nations agencies, donors, non-governmental organizations and the DPPC more and more frequently. Programs supported by other donors, such as the European Union funded activities that enhance the management capacity of the Ethiopian Food Security Reserve, and Canada's building of the capacity of the Early Warning Department of the DPPC, do much to complement USAID's assistance as well.

Principal Contractors, Grantees or Agencies: Developmentally-oriented Title II programs are implemented by CARE, Catholic Relief Services, the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, Save the Children Federation/USA, World Vision International, Food for the Hungry International, and The Relief Society of Tigray. In FY 1999, AFRICARE will begin a three year program as well.

Selected Performance Measures:

	Baseline (1996/97)	Targets (2000)	Targets (2002)
Nutritional Status of Children:
Decrease in proportion of children under 5 who are:   -  stunted   -  underweight	61% 45%	61% 45%	55% 35%
Decrease in the number of hungry months (# of months households do not have sufficient food to eat:	5.6	4.6	3
% increase in crop yield:
-  maize   -  teff   -  wheat   -  barley   -  sorghum	.55 MT/hectare .38 MT/hectare .68 MT/hectare .77 MT/hectare .53 MT/hectare	10% 5% 5% 5% 5%	30% 5% 20% 15% 15%
Approved disaster management plans in place in target areas:	None	4 plans	8 plans

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