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SESSION III: DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE: JUSTICE AND SECURITY "Achieving 'Sustainable Security' During Transitions" Pauline Baker, President, The Fund for Peace June 7, 2000  Click here to read the transcript from Pauline Baker's speech. Many NGOs are currently struggling with the same issues as the UNDP. They have been struggling to come up with practical tools for early warning and postconflict programming. The Fund for Peace has produced a manual for practitioners that emphasizes a systematic approach. The driving standard for this manual has been "sustainable security," or the ability of a country to solve its own conflict-related problems. How is sustainable security achieved? The main avenue is not the creation of democracy, per se, but the rebuilding of institutions. Four main types of institutions have been identified: 1) justice, 2) the police, 3) the military, and 4) the civil service. Practitioners have come a ways in rebuilding police forces, and they are beginning to work with justice institutions. Little has been done with military reforms, however. Most importantly, agencies have focused the least on rebuilding civil services. Governance is more than representative government; it is the capacity of a government to deliver the goods. Herein lies the manual's major focus. Democracy building is a very different enterprise than reconstituting a failed state. At the same time, the democratic side of institution building cannot be ignored by, for example, focusing on elites in the reform process. The manual has outlined 12 negative indicators for sustainable security. These indicators are social, political, and economic. Are there major signs of mounting demographic pressure? Is there mass movement of refugees and/or IDPs? Is there a legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance or group paranoia? Is there chronic and sustained human flight? This differs from the previous point in that the movement is voluntary by nature, e.g. braindrain. Is economic development uneven along group lines? Are there signs of a sharp and severe economic decline, as in Indonesia? Is there evidence of criminalization and delegitimization of the staff? Has there been progressive deterioration of public services? Has there been a suspension of rule of law? Does the security apparatus show signs of being a 'state within a state.' Has there been a rise in factionalized elites? Put another way, do elites tend to come from one ethnic group or faction? Are there external parties to the conflict? These can range from outside states, as in the Congo, to potential do-gooders like the World Bank, whose programs can promote tensions. The Fund for Peace has developed a conceptual framework involving three stages and using each of the 12 variables. Using the variables, it is possible to measure whether a country has improved or slid backwards towards conflict? Congress pushes USAID for end dates in its involvement in countries. End "states" should be the goal instead. This is the key to sustainable security. In addition, agencies and practitioners should be careful in the sequence of their efforts. Elections need to be timed right. Does it help if an ethnic nationalist party is duly elected? Institution building should come first. The timing is critical for preventing a recurrence of conflict. Right now, one of the weakest links is early warning. Practitioners are much too simplistic in how early warning is conceived.

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