The Role of Foreign Assistance
in Conflict Prevention

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Download the paper from this session: - Word - PDF - HTML Listen to audio clips from this session  January 2001 Conference Report TOC     Session VI: Emerging Threats: New Dimensions of Instability and Violent Conflict and a More Integrated Prevention and Response Capacity A. New Dimensions of Instability and Violent Conflict The importance of creating a more effective conflict prevention paradigm is underscored by the alarming global trends forecast in the recent National Intelligence Council's report, Global Trends 2015. The following trends are not hard predictions, but a forecast of what is likely to happen if international, national, and nonstate actors fail to take action. Demographic changes will include an overall population increase from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.2 billion in 2015, but at a decreasing rate (increasing by 1.3 percent in 2000, but by only 1 percent in 2015). The global economy is expected to grow, maintaining long-term dynamism. Emerging markets (especially in China and India) and the industrialized sector of developing countries will also maintain strong economic dynamism. However, the gap between the haves and the have-nots will increase, even in rapidly growing countries. Poverty and regional differences will persist. Economies which are expected to fall behind include: Sub-Saharan Africa The Middle East Central Asia Some Latin American countries Parts of Southeastern Europe In the area of health, developed countries will experience increased spending and major medical advances, which will fuel a biotechnological revolution. Noninfectious diseases will pose greater challenges than infectious diseases. Microbial resistance to antibiotics and population mobility will produce some health setbacks. In sharp contrast, developing countries will witness an increase in infectious diseases (AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria), reducing life expectancy and economic growth. Infectious diseases will also hamper democratization by weakening civil society and producing a power struggle for dwindling resources. As for our natural resources and environment, food production levels will be sufficient to meet needs, but donors will be wary about providing aid to regions where they may become involved in military conflict. Severe water shortages will spark conflict, especially in the Middle East. Environmental problems such as greenhouse gases, declining biodiversity, and reductions in arable land and tropical forests are likely to increase. In the realm of science and technology, there will be rapid advances in information technology and biotechnology, which will stimulate major communication and biological revolutions. Most of these technologies, however, will only be available in the developed world and wealthier segments of the developing world. There is the potential for certain practices (genomic profiling and genetic modification, e.g., cloning) to spark cultural, religious, and political upheaval. The international system will continue to see the nation state as the predominant unit of political, economic, and security affairs. Nation states will face challenges resulting from globalization and increasingly vocal and organized publics. Globalization (the free flow of information, capital, goods, services, people, and the diffusion of power) will challenge state authority and produce demands for increased international cooperation on transnational issues. State repression of communal minorities is likely to occur in countries with slow economic growth, concentrated executive power, and weak rule of law. Repression is likely to occur in: Sub-Saharan Africa Central and South Asia Parts of the Middle East Powerful states (Russia, India, China, Brazil) Nonstate actors will become increasingly active, forcing the nation state to deal with multinational corporations, private volunteer organizations, and other nongovernmental organizations. Transnational criminal organizations from a variety of regions will challenge state authority by forming loose alliances with each other, various insurgent movements, and corrupt leaders of unstable, economically fragile states, as well as troubled banks and businesses. These criminal alliances will generate income from narcotics trafficking, alien smuggling, trafficking women and children, and the smuggling of toxic materials, hazardous waste, illicit arms, and military technology. The United States will remain the strongest military power due to its information technology-driven "battlefield awareness" and its precision-guided weaponry. Challenges will include: Asymmetric threats where state and nonstate opponents avoid a head-on challenge but exploit perceived weaknesses and employ "sidewise" technology to minimize U.S. military strength. The threat posed by strategic weapons of mass destruction emanating from capable states (Russia, China, most likely North Korea, probably Iran, and possibly Iraq) as well as nonstate actors via unconventional delivery. Regional military threats from states with large military forces and a mix of Cold War and post-Cold War weapons. Interstate conflict is less likely to occur, with the exception of regional rivalries in the Middle East and Asia (India-Pakistan, China-Taiwan). Internal conflicts will continue to spawn internal displacements (refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies). If such conflicts are not resolved, they are likely to spill over into interstate conflicts. Weak states spawning internal conflicts will threaten the stability of the increasingly global international system. The UN and other regional organizations will increasingly be called upon to manage internal conflicts as major states (concerned about domestic stress, perception of success, a lack of political will, and tight resources) restrict their involvement. Terrorists and transnational networks will seek states with poor governance, communal tensions, weak economies, and porous borders. Regions particularly vulnerable to internal conflict include: Sub-Saharan Africa The Caucasus Central Asia Parts of Southeast Asia Central America and the Andean region From this bleak forecast, some major conclusion emerge: National policies will continue to matter. Governments will have to invest more in technology and public education, and incorporate nonstate actors in order to succeed in 2015. Both primitive and precision-guided weapons must be monitored. The United States and other developed countries will be challenged to do this while leading a technological revolution. International arrangements will be needed to solve complex transnational problems (economic volatility, environmental degradation, resource competition, humanitarian emergencies, and conflict). Should these fail, the United States and other developed countries must broker solutions with nonstate actors. Greater communication and collaboration must be established between national security objectives and the domestic policy agenda, especially in inter-agency cooperation. B. Responding to the Challenge : An Integrated Prevention & Response Capacity There exists a shared, but poorly articulated, vision of the future of USAID, based on the idea of prevention as a policy of engagement. The focus is on building capable states and preventing conflict. The question is how to enact the vision. What is clear is the need for a buy-in by all agencies involved in foreign policy. Conflict intervention must take into account the country's internal dynamics. The primary focus should be on what the people within the conflict area need and want. Intervention efforts need to be designed with regard to the reality of the society, not reality as perceived by outsiders. Ultimately, prevention is development. What is often lacking is an enabling environment. The United States can provide this essential enabling environment in which people can maximize their own potential and construct capable societies out of the wreckage of conflict and failed states. The foundation for these endeavors is the constituting process. USAID is ideally suited to provide space for indigenous community building but at present lacks the tools required to be involved in the constituting process. Simultaneous stimulation on all societal levels is essential since no level functions independent of the rest. While realistically the United States cannot respond at every level, an all-encompassing vision is required to ensure that no elements are ignored. The critical need is to increase communication and cooperation between government agencies, transnational corporations, and NGOs regarding issues of conflict prevention. USAID may not exist in the future, but some assistance agency will. It is vital that the vision created by USAID transcend any one agency. AUDIO CLIPS FROM THIS SPEECH Click here for audio clip of John Gannon. [RealAudio non-streaming file, 196k] Transcription of audio clip: "Our agenda will be increasingly transnational. International or multilateral arrangements increasingly will be called upon in 2015 to deal with growing transnational problems from economic and financial volatility; to legal and illegal migration; to competition for scarce natural resources such as water; to humanitarian, refugee, and environmental crises; to terrorism, narcotrafficking, and weapons proliferation; and to both regional conflicts and cyber threats." [This audio clip requires RealPlayerTM. The RealPlayer software is available for free download from RealNetwork at http://www.real.com/player/index.html.]

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