FEWS NET Predicts Food Troubles in Horn of Africa
FrontLines - March 2009
By Ashtar Analeed Marcus
Most likely food security conditions, April-June 2009.
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About 3.1 million people in Somalia are facing critical food shortages during the early part of 2009, according
to a half-year forecast released by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
The prediction
by the USAID-funded network comes on the heels of food shortages that affected 18.8 million people across the Horn of Africa since November, according to the Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance.
Central and south Somalia and eastern and southern Ethiopia are the “hot spots where conditions are expected to be worst,” FEWS NET officials said in a Jan. 31 written statement.
FEWS NET in East Africa monitors Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda.
Despite the concern over “hot spots” in Somalia and parts of eastern and southern Ethiopia, conditions in the first half of 2009 are not expected to be as bad as they were at the close of 2008.
“The take away message is that the Belg [rainy] season may not be great, but at this point, we’re not concerned about the failure we were concerned about earlier,” said Chris Hillbruner, a FEWS NET food security early warning specialist.
Ethiopia’s Belg, or Gu, season
of short rains from about February through June heavily determines food availability in grazing areas starting in March and in many cropping areas from July to December.
The FEWS NET prediction scale ranges from “generally food secure” to “famine.” And while no famine has been detected yet, officials said central and south Somalia and Ethiopia’s Somali Region are expected to remain at the “extremely food insecure” level—just below famine.
In Somalia—the hardest hit region—3.1 million people lack food. Recent rains were 50 percent below normal and neighboring Kenya, where many Somalis have migrated, is considering closing its border with Somalia due to the large numbers of refugees. Meanwhile, as Ethiopian peacekeeping
troops withdrew, civil security was at risk of declining, officials said. NGOs have suspended
some food distribution to the area because of insecurity.
“Everything that could go wrong continues to go wrong
[in Somalia],” Hillbruner said. “Half the population is highly or extremely food insecure.”
Bordering Somalia, Ethiopia’s Somali Region—the region predicted to be second-hardest hit—had consecutive seasons of poor rains in 2008. Increased food prices and ongoing
conflict have also contributed
to reduced access to food.
In spite of drought, Djibouti is stable, or “food secure,” because of large-scale food distribution
from aid organizations. The U.N. World Food Program began a food aid program there in January.
“For the time being, the immediate issue is being resolved through food aid, but the underlying
issues, like high food prices and poor pasture conditions, remain,” Hillbruner said.
FEWS NET also covers Afghanistan, Haiti, Guatemala, and 17 countries in West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa.
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