Appendix C: USAID Data Estimation Methodology
At times, it may be necessary to estimate performance results data that are to be included in the Agency's performance-related reports. This is particularly true in the case of the Performance and Accountability Report (PAR), which is now due on November 15th, a mere six weeks after the end of the fiscal year.
However, data estimation is an accepted practice when reporting data. Nevertheless, estimated data should be verifiable; it should be complete, reliable, comparable, and consistent. Furthermore, the methodology used to estimate data should be well documented. Accordingly, USAID employs various methods to accurately estimate performance data, as described in the
table below.
Selected Methods Used for Data Estimation
| Expert Opinion |
| Data estimates can be based on employee judgment and experience. Only those employees who are familiar with the
relevant organizational processes and procedures should be consulted. |
| Historical Trends |
| Historical data can be the best indicator of present and future performance. Historical data will typically show seasonal and annual trends. |
| Extrapolation |
| Partial-year data can be averaged or extrapolated to project full-year estimates. Partial-year data estimation should be
performed by employees who are most familiar with the data in question. |
| Sampling and Statistics |
| If the cost in time and resources for collecting a large amount of data is too high, a statistically valid sample will often suffice. |
Data estimation evolves and becomes more precise over time. The first time an estimate is calculated, it may be inaccurate, especially if there is no historical data to use for comparison purposes. Subsequent estimates often benefit from historical or actual data and are, therefore, more reliable.
Point of Contact
Any questions regarding this guidance should be directed to Nick Vivio
(Telephone: 202-712-0175; Email: nvivio@usaid.gov).
Bibliography
Performance Plans – Selected Approaches for Verification and Validation of Agency Performance Information, General Accounting Office, Committee on Governmental Affairs, Report to the Chairman, U.S. Senate, July 1999, (GAO/GGD-99-139).
The Results Act, An Evaluator's Guide to Assessing Agency Annual Performance Plans,
General Accounting Office, General Government Division, April 1998, Version 1, (GAO/GGD-10.1.20).
Performance Results Act Performance Data,
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Office of Inspector General, Office of Congressional Relations and Evaluations, February 21, 2001, Evaluation Report No. 01-001.
Verification and Validation Guidelines for Performance Planning and Reporting,
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Directive System, Circular 4100.2, November 30, 2001.
Data Validation,
National Academy of Public Administration, Performance Notes, Performance Consortium, Budget Symposium – March 27, 2000.
Performance Indicators – Getting Started,
National Academy of Public Administration, Center for improving Government Performance.
Internet:
Independent Verification and Validation,
Procinct Security, http://www.procinct.com/services/ivv.html
Forecasting,
September 29, 1996, http://web.calstatela.edu/
faculty/hwarren/a503/forecast.htm
Forecasting,
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~dsparlin/forecast.htm
Performance Data Completeness and Reliability,
http://www.dot.gov/perfacc2003/performancedata.htm
Performance Principles for Census Bureau Activities,
http://www.census.gov/qdocs/www/performance_principles.htm
Performance Data and Performance Measurement,
http://www.dot.gov/performance/appendix1.html
Estimation Methods,
http://www.mis.boun.edu.tr/pekol/MIS336_web/a%5Ca0007.html.
Back to Top ^ | < Previous Page | Next Page >
|
