Democracy and Governance in Turkmenistan
The Development Challenge:
Tajikistan continues to play a pivotal role as a U.S. ally in Central Asia with respect to the Global War on Terror and the cessation of counter narcotics trade. Tajikistan was the poorest republic within the Soviet Union and today is the poorest country in the region. According to the World Bank, nearly two thirds of the population (64%) lives below the poverty line. Economic growth has remained constant and is above 8% annually since 1999. This impressive growth is attributable to three factors unrelated to sustainable structural economic reforms: the cessation of the civil war, the initial impact of macroeconomic stability, and the large increase in remittances from migrant workers. However, national unemployment remained fairly stable at about 12% to 15% during this same period. Employment in the agriculture sector, unskilled labor markets, and family workers all increased with a comparable decline in employment in manufacturing, transport, health, education, and social work. According to Transparency International, Tajikistan continues to fall within the bottom 10% of countries worldwide in its control of corruption (133 of 145), largely attributed to its failure to address administrative reform and weak public institutional structures.
Russia recently began the process of demobilizing its border guards along the 1,400 kilometer Tajik border with Afghanistan. The border is highly porous and inconsistently patrolled, which makes the Russians' departure worrisome given the poorly-equipped and trained Tajik border control unit. Narcotics trafficking remains a significant problem as heroin producers use Tajikistan as a primary transit route for exports to Russia and Europe. Poor government expenditures in the social sector, and particularly in education, are also of growing concern. The number of students attending school is declining, from 90% in 2000 to 88% in 2003. In rural areas (73% of the country), twice as many girls drop out of school as boys because families place little value on the poor quality of education and there is a lack of jobs post-graduation. The resurgence of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) are other worrisome trends. With regard to TB, the actual number of people infected is probably five times higher than the official figure and more deaths are occurring due to the disease.
In spite of the problems it faces, the Government of Tajikistan (GOT) continues to press for reforms in notable areas. Buoyed by increased donor support, the GOT is moving on a broad front to improve the transition to a market economy through improved macroeconomic management and monetary policy, banking supervision, tax administration, and commercial law. Public spending on health and education has increased in real terms, primarily to meet salary increases. The GOT is implementing fundamental reforms in health care and education financing in pilot regions. The USAID program directly supports the GOT's reform agenda. It advances U.S. national interests to stem drug trafficking and promote political and social stability through democratic and economic reform, improved quality of life, and enhanced productive capacity.
(Excerpted from the 2006 Congressional Budget Justification for Turkmenistan)
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