Projected Mortality Rates in darfur, Sudan 2004-2005
Wasting, Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM)
GAM liekly to reach 25-30% by July 2004
Wasting may reach up to 40% by January 2005
GAM will decrease as vulnerable children die
Crude Mortality Rate (CMR)
The emergency threshold rate is 1 per 10,000 per day
The CMR likely will reach 3 per 10,000 in June 2004
CMR could rise to 10 per 10,000 per day
In the period between October - December 2004, CMR may rise to a rate of 20 per 10,000. This would reach famine stage.
CMR will decrease as people die or migrate out. Cumulative death rate would be aprroximately 30% of vulnerable group over a 9 month period
The chart indicates that land transport will become increasingly difficult between April and September as rainfall increases.
Footnotes:
1. “CMR and Wasting projections from personal communication from field based epidemiology studies in Bahr-I-Ghazal, Sudan 1998 and Ethiopia 2000
2. Background on Food Security in Darfur. Collins, Steve, MD “How bad does it have to get? The Nutritional Status in N Darfur, Sudan in Spring 2001” Save the Children (UK).
3. Wasting rates, Office of UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for the Sudan, 10 January 2004; FAO Special Report Sudan February 2004.
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