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Somalia – Complex Emergency

February 3, 2010

Situation Report #2, Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 (PDF, 50kb)

Map of Somalia

Background

Since 1991, widespread violence, endemic poverty, recurrent droughts, and floods have generated a complex emergency in Somalia. From December 2006 to January 2009, fighting between the Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG), backed by Ethiopian forces, and armed militias opposed to the TFG led to a further deterioration in humanitarian conditions. Following January 2009 Ethiopian troop withdrawals, conflict between armed militia groups in Somalia continues to displace populations and limit access to affected areas. As a result, nearly 561,000 Somali refugees have fled the country and approximately 1.39 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), including long-term IDPs and individuals displaced by increased fighting since February 2007, remain uprooted within Somalia.

On January 29, 2010, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) reported that more than 3.2 million people would require humanitarian assistance in Somalia through June 2010, representing a 9 percent decrease since July 2009. The January to June 2010 estimate includes 555,000 urban poor, representing a 15 percent decrease since July 2009; nearly 1.3 million individuals residing in rural areas, representing a 15 percent decrease since July 2009; and approximately 1.39 million IDPs. The total number of IDPs includes more than 1.1 million people displaced by escalated fighting since February 2007, and 275,000 long-term IDPs. The combined effects of consecutive seasons of failed or poor rainfall, conflict, rising inflation, displacement, and diarrheal disease outbreaks have severely exacerbated food insecurity and resulted in a significant increase in acute malnutrition rates. U.N. and partner agencies are coordinating efforts to improve access, but insecurity and targeted attacks against relief staff hinder the provision of emergency assistance to affected populations.

On October 1, 2009, U.S. Ambassador to Kenya Michael E. Ranneberger renewed the disaster declaration for the complex emergency in Somalia for FY 2010. USAID/OFDA staff continue to monitor humanitarian conditions and respond to the needs of affected populations in Somalia.

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE
Total Population in Need of Emergency Assistance 3.2 million FSAU – Jan. 2010
IDPs in Somalia 1.39 million1 UNHCR – Jan. 2010
Somali Refugees in East and Yemen 561,000 UNHCR2 – Jan. 2010

FY 2010 HUMANITARIAN FUNDING TO DATE
USAID/OFDA Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $5,464
USAID/FFP3 Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $14,700
Total USAID and State Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $20,164
1 The total includes 275,000 long-term IDPs
2 Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
3 USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP)

Current Situation

Humanitarian conditions in Somalia continue to deteriorate due to increasing insecurity and civil conflict, inter-clan fighting, disease outbreaks, population displacement, food insecurity, and livelihood deterioration. Conflict and increased attacks targeting aid agencies have resulted in food aid suspensions and diminished humanitarian access to displaced and conflict-affected populations.

On January 5, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) announced the temporary closure of six offices in southern Somalia, citing escalating insecurity, attacks against aid workers, humanitarian staff abductions, and unacceptable demands from armed groups as obstacles to the provision of emergency food assistance. WFP expects the temporary food aid suspension to affect approximately 900,000 individuals, one-third of WFP’s total caseload in Somalia. WFP plans to continue working throughout the rest of the country, including in Mogadishu and the nearby Afgooye corridor, providing food assistance to approximately 1.8 million people.

Security and Populations Movements

Between July and December 2009, insecurity levels increased or remained at high levels throughout Mogadishu, Middle and Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiran, Galgadud, and Mudug regions, according to FSNAU. In addition, emerging insecurity trends occurred in northern Somalia. Between January and June 2010, FSNAU reported that civil insecurity is likely to result in continued and renewed conflict; ongoing population displacement; destruction of property; an increased number of checkpoints; disruption of trade activities within Somalia; and closure of the Kenyan border. FSNAU also noted the possibility of escalated insecurity in rural areas.

On January 19, UNHCR revised the estimated number of IDPs in Somalia from 1.5 million individuals to approximately 1.39 million individuals, including 275,000 long-term IDPs. The new IDP estimate reflects a downward revision of the number of IDPs residing in Afgooye corridor, from 540,000 to 380,000, following a verification exercise. In the coming weeks, humanitarian agencies expect increased insecurity and the recent suspension of WFP operations in south Somalia to result in increased population movements within Somalia and across international borders.

On January 30, UNHCR estimated that insecurity, inter-clan fighting, and livelihood deterioration had displaced approximately 82,000 individuals within Somalia since January 1, with insecurity accounting for 98 percent of total displacement. Of the total, internal displacement between January 1 and 22 includes approximately 18,000 individuals displaced from Mogadishu, of which 13,900 people fled the city and 4,400 others displaced to safer areas within Mogadishu.

According to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the number of IDPs residing in Lower Juba Region increased during the week of January 15 following closure of the Kenya– Somalia border. In addition, the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) reported that approximately 400 families remained stranded between the two borders for more than three days. WHO and health partners continue to provide health assistance to affected populations and to monitor the situation.

Ongoing conflict and attacks on aid workers continue to hinder humanitarian assistance in south and central Somalia. Attacks in Gedo and Hiran regions in late December resulted in the deaths of two humanitarian workers, bringing the total number of aid workers killed in Somalia during 2009 to 10, according to OCHA. On January 22, OCHA reported that a local non-governmental organization (NGO) recovered the body of a staff member from an abandoned road in Mogadishu on January 16. According to OCHA, unidentified gunmen previously kidnapped the staff member, along with four other members of the local NGO who remain missing as of February 3. The local NGO is a major implementing partner of the wet feeding program in Mogadishu, according to OCHA.

Increasing insecurity also continues to displace populations across international borders. As of early January, UNHCR reported that nearly 561,000 Somali refugees resided in the region, including 309,107 in Kenya; 162,669 in Yemen; 59,010 in Ethiopia; 11,660 in Uganda; 10,700 in Djibouti; 4,760 in Eritrea; and 2,870 in Tanzania.

In January 2010, UNHCR registered an estimated 3,289 Somali refugees in the Dadaab camp complex located in the North Eastern Province of Kenya, bringing the total number of refugees in the Dadaab complex to 259,717 individuals. Relief agencies continue to note concern regarding humanitarian conditions within the Dadaab complex due to overcrowded conditions and limited access to basic services. The camps currently host nearly three times the intended maximum capacity of 90,000 individuals.

In FY 2009, the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM) provided more than $56 million to support affected Somalis, including $39 million in earmarked funding to assist Somali refugees in Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Yemen, and $17 million to support UNHCR and International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) operations within Somalia.

Health and Nutrition

According to late January reports, the nutrition situation remains critical in areas of south Somalia, including Lower and Middle Juba, Bakool, Bay, and Hiran regions; some areas in Gedo Region; parts of central Somalia; and Togdheer Region in northern Somalia. Areas of particular concern include Juba Region, where high malnutrition levels are linked to disease outbreaks rather than food access; Bakool Region and parts of Gedo Region, where high malnutrition rates are linked to food access; and Bay and Hiran regions where nutritional vulnerability is linked to both disease outbreaks and food access. FSNAU reports indicate that nutrition conditions in central regions remain critical but have not significantly deteriorated in the last six months of 2009 due to successful humanitarian interventions.

According to FSNAU, one in six children in Somalia is acutely malnourished and one in 22 is severely malnourished, with a national median global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 16 percent and a severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate of 4.2 percent, exceeding the traditional WHO emergency thresholds. In south and central Somalia, FSNAU data indicates that one in five children is acutely malnourished and one in 20 is severely malnourished, with GAM rates of 19 percent and SAM rates of 4.5 percent. Countrywide, FSNAU reports that approximately 240,000 children under five years of age are acutely malnourished, including 63,000 severely malnourished children who require immediate life-saving interventions.

According to preliminary FSNAU estimates, the national stunting rate in Somalia is 20 percent, indicating that one in five children is unlikely to reach full development potential. Among IDP populations in Somalia, the stunting rate is 25 percent, indicating that one in four children is unlikely to reach development potential. FSNAU also reports elevated crude and under five mortality rates, which have exceeded emergency thresholds among pastoral populations in Juba Region and central areas, as well as among IDPs in Afgooye corridor.

Between November and December 2009, FSNAU and humanitarian partners conducted nine nutrition assessments in Togdheer, Mudug, Galgadud, and Hiran regions. The survey results indicated continuing high levels of malnutrition in surveyed areas, with no improvement from previous May 2009 assessments, and GAM rates greater than 20 percent in Galgadud, Mudug, and Hiran regions. In late January 2010, FSNAU also noted that decreasing humanitarian access and fewer implementing partners could result in further deteriorated nutrition conditions, particularly in Galgadud, Mudug, Hiran, and Bakool regions.

Implementing partners in Galgadud, Mudug, and Hiran regions also reported increased admission rates of severely malnourished children into selective feeding centers during the last six months of 2009. FSNAU noted that persistent lack of access to safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, and adequate healthcare remain significant contributing factors to the sustained decline in nutrition conditions.

To mitigate declining health and nutrition conditions, the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), WHO, and implementing health partners continue to implement the third iteration of the Child Health Days (CHD) campaign, providing women and children with important health services, including vaccinations. Since re-commencing in November 2009, the CHD campaign has reached more than 288,000 children under five years of age and more than 296,000 women in Mogadishu. During mid-to-late 2009, high levels of insecurity and lack of cooperation from local authorities prevented UNICEF from conducting two planned CHD campaigns in Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle region, and Kismayo district. According to OCHA, the first two CHD campaigns reached approximately 2 million children under five years of age and more than 1.5 million women of child-bearing age. UNICEF, WHO, and implementing partners aim to reach 1.5 million children and 1.2 million women during each round of the vaccination campaign. To date in FY 2010, USAID/OFDA has provided nearly $1.2 million to support health and nutrition activities in Somalia, including programs intended to mitigate the impact of acute malnutrition and improve access to critical basic health care services for children and pregnant women.

Agriculture and Food Security

Normal to above-normal 2009/2010 deyr rains have improved crop and pasture conditions in most areas of southern Somalia. However, below-normal rainfall in central, northeast, and parts of northwest Somalia has reduced pasture and water availability and exacerbated drought conditions, according to FSNAU. Good seasonal rainfall in southern agricultural areas of Somalia has resulted in a normal to above-normal harvest production. FSNAU estimates a total 2009/2010 deyr cereal production of 124,700 metric tons (MT) in south Somalia, representing the largest deyr cereal production in south Somalia since the 2001/2002 deyr season, a 246 percent increase compared to the 2008 deyr cereal harvest, and a nearly 150 percent increase compared to the 2004-2008 average.

Including deyr and off-season production, FSNAU estimates a seasonal cereal production in south Somalia of 126,400 MT, also significantly above the 2008 levels and the 2004-2008 average. In addition, 2009 commercial cereal imports were above-average, with nearly 700,000 MT imported during the year, representing a 190 percent increase compared to 2008 commercial cereal imports, and 156 percent increase compared to the 2005-2007 average. Due to an increased volume of imports and increased livestock exports, imported commodity prices decreased slightly or remained stable through the year. Additionally, on January 22, OCHA field staff reported that water shortages in Somaliland and Puntland due to insufficient rainfall has resulted in abnormal population and livestock movements towards Sool Region in search of pasture and water.

In FY 2010 to date, USAID/OFDA has provided nearly $1.1 million to support agriculture and food security programs in Somalia, including interventions designed to improve crop production and storage in droughtaffected areas.

Emergency Food Assistance

On January 5, WFP announced the indefinite suspension of emergency food distributions in areas of southern Somalia due to escalating clashes, attacks against aid workers, and humanitarian staff abductions. Prior to the forced suspension of WFP operations in south Somalia, the organization planned to discontinue general food distributions in southern Somalia during January and February due to an expected increase in food availability following the December harvest. WFP continues to assist approximately 1.8 million food-insecure individuals in other areas of Somalia.

In anticipation of increased population movements resulting from the early WFP food aid suspension and the upcoming hunger season, WFP and other humanitarian organizations are currently exploring options to address the needs of affected populations. During the week of January 22, WFP conducted a test delivery of 60 MT of food commodities that arrived safely in Afgooye from Mogadishu. The delivery was the first to Afgooye since the early January suspension of WFP operations in southern Somalia, and with additional supplies received in Mogadishu on January 27, WFP plans to increase food deliveries to Afgooye to 3,000 MT per month.

In FY 2010 to date, USAID/FFP has provided more than 18,000 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food assistance, valued at nearly $15 million, to WFP for distribution to vulnerable populations. In addition, USAID/OFDA provided more than $1.8 million to WFP for the regional procurement and distribution of food aid in FY 2009.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene

Waterborne diseases continue to present significant health risks for conflict-affected populations in Somalia. WHO conducted a field visit to Banadir Hospital in Mogadishu in late December, following confirmation of cholera cases at the facility in October. From late November to late December, WHO reported 696 acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases at the hospital, with 86 percent occurring in children under five years of age, as well as one confirmed cholera case. Between January 11 and 17, Banadir hospital reported 108 cases of AWD, an increase from 75 cases during the previous week. Although health partners declared the AWD outbreak was under control in late 2009, WHO continues to monitor the situation. In recent weeks, WHO has expressed concern regarding the high incidence of AWD at the facility, particularly as the risk of transmission to large IDP populations nearby remains high.

On January 30, FSNAU reported that 70 percent of the population in Somalia remains unable to access safe drinking water. In addition, sub-optimal feeding practices continue to place children at risk of contracting diarrhea, which subsequently leads to malnutrition. Support for health, nutrition, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) programs remains critical to preventing increased malnutrition and mortality rates during the next six months, according to FSNAU.

In FY 2010 to date, USAID/OFDA has provided nearly $2.4 million to support WASH interventions in Somalia, including programs designed to increase access to safe drinking water and reduce the spread of waterborne diseases through water point rehabilitation and hygiene awareness campaigns.

USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

In FY 2009, the U.S. Government (USG) provided more than $150 million for humanitarian assistance programs in Somalia, including more than $9 million in USAID/OFDA funding to support agriculture and food security, economic recovery and market systems, health, nutrition, protection, and WASH interventions.

For detailed information on U.S. Government humanitarian assistance to Somalia, please see Situation Report #2, Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 (PDF, 50kb)

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