Acknowledgements Foreword Overview: Promoting Freedom, Security and Opportunity Chapter 1: Promoting Democratic Governance Chapter 2: Driving Economic Growth Chapter 3: Improving People's Health Chapter 4: Mitigating and Managing Conflict Chapter 5: Providing Humanitarian Aid Chapter 6: The Full Measure of Foreign Aid Tuesday, 07-Jan-2003 08:52:07 EST

Jump to Chapter 4 Sections:
>> Conflicts since the Cold War >> Understanding conflict >> Windows of vulnerability and opportunity >> Foreign assistance, conflict management and conflict mitigation >> Guiding principles for encouraging stability >> Notes >> Background paper >> References

Many in the development community believe that successful interventions in civil conflict, such as those in Mozambique and Namibia, have reflected better understanding of the underlying conflict dynamics than have unsuccessful ones, as in Angola and Somalia. Yet in many countries where the international community has intervened, careful attention to underlying causes has been missing.

Indeed, interventions by the development community are often criticized for addressing the symptoms of conflict-refugee flows, famines, ethnic riots-rather than the causes. This charge is exaggerated, not least because such factors often contribute to the resurgence or expansion of conflict. But it is true that development agencies have fallen short in their efforts to understand and address the issues that induce and sustain violence.

Understanding the mix of root causes in a country can yield important information about the potential for conflict, what conflict might look like if it emerges, and how its effects will linger once fighting ends. Motives for violence can indicate which types of groups might mobilize, along what lines of division, and in what numbers. They can also suggest the likely location, scope, and nature of violence. Attempts to capture and control areas containing alluvial diamonds, for example, will look different from attempts to capture and control a state, which will look different from attempts to secede by an ethnic group. Thus root causes can provide information about the goal of violence, which can provide information about the resources needed to achieve that goal (box 4.1).

Transmigration to spontaneous uprisings (Box 4.1)