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| >> Foreign Aid in the National Interest >> Chapter 3 >> Health, development and aid |
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Jump to Chapter 3 Sections:
Broad progress. startling changes, persistent quandariesDemographics are changing in developing countries. Fertility and infant and child mortality are falling, while life expectancy is rising. As a result populations are aging, with broad implications for economic growth. How will these issues affect development prospects in developing countries, and how should assistance programs respond? FertilityAround the world, the average number of births per woman has been declining since the mid-1970s. Although there will still be a gap in 2020, the United Nations projects that by 2050 fertility rates will be nearly the same in industrial and developing countries (figure 3.1). In a March 2002 report the United Nations Population Division proposed lowering by 1 billion people its global population projection for the end of the 21st century.10 This significant revision was based on trends in some of the most populous developing countries, including Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, the Philippines, and Vietnam. It had been assumed that fertility in these countries would fall to the replacement level by 2050, or an average of 2.1 children per woman. But it is falling much faster. UN demographers predict that fertility in these countries will ultimately fall below the replacement level, to 1.85 children per woman. In India alone these revised estimates suggest 600 million fewer people in 2100 than previously expected. Although the world’s population will still be growing at mid-century, reflecting momentum from higher fertility in the past, 80 percent of the world’s population is projected to have fertility rates below the replacement level. As a result, during this century the world’s population is expected to stop growing and start slowly shrinking. 11 Still, fertility rates will continue to be higher in the least developed countries (averaging 4.2 children per woman in 2015-20) than in other less developed countries (2.7 children, excluding China). Fertility is falling for several reasons. First, contraceptive use has risen considerably and should continue to do so, lagging behind only in Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 3.2).12 Contraceptive use is especially high ranging from 65-85 percent of women in countries where fertility rates are below replacement levels.13 Once families perceive that contraceptives have contributed to their well-being, they use them consistently. Benefits include the reduction of maternal, child, and infant mortality. Second, economic growth is a key factor in causing fertility to decline because it generally leads women to believe they are better off with fewer children. Without economic growth, an important rationale for having large families does not change.15 Rather, changes in fertility are driven by parents weighing economic and personal choices in the face of falling infant mortality. page 2 |
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